Senate passes $US 739 billion health and climate bill In Australia’s quarterly terms, the contraction would be 0.4% in the March quarter and 0.2% in June. Note that the US annualises its GDP data. Of negative GDP growth in both the March and June quarters that is often used to define a recession. The robust jobs report contradicted the two successive quarters While the unemployment rate has returned to its level in February 2020, prior to the COVID pandemic, the employment population ratio – the percentage of eligible Americans employed – was 60.0% in July, 1.2% below its February 2020 level. In the July jobs report (released August 5), 528,000 jobs were created, and the unemployment rate was just 3.5%. Real wages increased 0.5% in July after falling 0.9% in June, though they are still down 3.6% in weekly terms for the 12 months to July. But the July inflation report (released Wednesday) had headline inflation unchanged, down from a 1.3% increase in June.
Inflation has been the Democrats’ biggest economic problem this year. This could help Democrats retain their Congressional majorities. Wade, the Supreme Court has given Democrats an opportunity to be an opposition party. Democrat Barack Obama was president in both 20, when Republicans won, and Trump was president in 2018, when Democrats won.īy striking down Roe v. Bush was president in 2006, when Democrats won. Since 2006, the non-presidential party has won every midterm House election convincingly. But the reaction to efforts to gut Obamacare demonstrates the electoral potency of stripping of rights already acquired. When Obamacare was first enacted in March 2010, it likely hindered Democrats at the November 2010 midterm elections, which Republicans won easily. The repeal of Obamacare failed by just a 51-49 margin in the Senate. These efforts were supported by Republicans who controlled both chambers of Congress. Indiana has now banned abortion from September 15, though with exceptions for rape and incest.įor much of his first year as president, Trump had near his worst ratings in the FiveThirtyEight tracker, likely due to his attempts to gut the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Nine more states have abortion bans that are currently being held up by state courts, with four including exceptions for rape or incest.Ī ten-year-old girl who became pregnant from rape in Ohio was forced to have an abortion in Indiana owing to Ohio’s total abortion ban. This July 22 Vox article said 13 states now have abortion bans, nine of these without exceptions for rape or incest (Oklahoma is unclear). The side that thinks their rights are in danger of being stripped, whether that’s guns or abortion, is more motivated. But in this case, gun control advocates are trying to strip people of their “right” to bear arms. Gun control is another issue where Republicans appear extreme, particularly to an international audience. I believe abortion has become important as the large majority of voters would have assumed it was settled law, and the Supreme Court would not reverse its 1973 decision. Tammy Ljungblad/AP/AAP Abortion important at midterms due to stripping of rights In Kansas, a referendum to remove the right to abortion was resoundingly defeated. The swing from the 2020 election to this referedum was 32.7 points to the left. Kansas is a right-wing state that voted for Donald Trump over Biden at the 2020 US presidential election by a 56.2-41.5 margin. The “no” side won this referendum by a landslide 59.0-41.0 margin. In this case, a “no” vote preserved the abortion right, while a “yes” would have scrapped this right.
Republicans attempted to remove a right to an abortion in the Kansas state constitution by a referendum. The Democrats’ biggest triumph occurred at an August 2 referendum in Kansas. Twenty-one Republicans and 14 Democrats are up for election in the Senate. Democrats won the House in 2020 by a 222-213 margin, and hold the Senate from a 50-50 tie on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. But at the moment, abortion appears to be helping Democrats, and recent economic data is likely to also help.Īt these elections, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. There are still three months to go before the November 8 midterm elections, and Republicans could advance again. But Democrats are doing far better than we would expect from Biden’s ratings. Democrats have a tiny 0.1% national lead over Republicans, their first lead since last November.īiden is still unpopular with a 55.5% disapproval, 39.8% approval (net -15.7). Now FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 60% chance to win the Senate, while Republicans still have an 80% chance to win the House.
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